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Fed Rates
Jerome Powell
Fed
Economic Policy
fomc
All
100
Trade War
4
Fed Rates
20
Inflation
28
Macro Indicators
56
GDP
17
Global Rates
32
Taxes
7
Treasuries
1
Consumer
2
Housing
9
Labor
1
Fed Decision in July?
No change
67%
Yes
66.5¢
No
33.5¢
25 bps increase
34%
Yes
34.1¢
No
65.9¢
Jul 29, 2026
End
•
$53M
Vol
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
80%
Yes
80.2¢
No
19.9¢
1 (25 bps)
14%
Yes
13.5¢
No
86.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$42.1M
Vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
3%
Chance
Yes
2.8¢
No
97.3¢
Jul 31, 2026
End
•
$16.2M
Vol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
56%
Chance
Yes
56.5¢
No
43.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$5.1M
Vol
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA
67%
Yes
66.5¢
No
33.5¢
Apple
17%
Yes
17.1¢
No
83.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$4.2M
Vol
Fed rate hike in 2026?
72%
Chance
Yes
71.5¢
No
28.5¢
Dec 9, 2026
End
•
$4M
Vol
Fed rate cut by...?
December Meeting
21%
Yes
20.5¢
No
79.5¢
October Meeting
12%
Yes
11.9¢
No
88.1¢
Jun 17, 2026
End
•
$2.7M
Vol
Fed Decision in September?
25 bps increase
53%
Yes
52.5¢
No
47.5¢
No change
42%
Yes
41.5¢
No
58.5¢
Sep 16, 2026
End
•
$2.5M
Vol
Largest Company end of July?
NVIDIA
87%
Yes
86.5¢
No
13.5¢
Apple
11%
Yes
11.3¢
No
88.7¢
Jul 31, 2026
End
•
$2.3M
Vol
US recession by end of 2026?
11%
Chance
Yes
10.5¢
No
89.5¢
Jan 31, 2027
End
•
$1.7M
Vol
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 4.25%
23%
Yes
23.0¢
No
77.0¢
↓ 3.25%
18%
Yes
17.5¢
No
82.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$1.7M
Vol
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Above 4.5%
19%
Yes
19.0¢
No
81.0¢
Above 5%
14%
Yes
13.5¢
No
86.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$1.3M
Vol
Fed rate hike by...?
October Meeting
66%
Yes
65.5¢
No
34.5¢
September Meeting
56%
Yes
55.5¢
No
44.5¢
Oct 29, 2026
End
•
$1M
Vol
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
3%
Chance
Yes
2.6¢
No
97.4¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$1M
Vol
June Inflation US - Annual
3.8%
45%
Yes
45.1¢
No
54.9¢
3.9%
26%
Yes
26.0¢
No
74.0¢
Jul 15, 2026
End
•
$774K
Vol
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0%
78%
Yes
78.0¢
No
22.0¢
5.0–6.0%
17%
Yes
17.1¢
No
83.0¢
Jan 31, 2026
End
•
$746K
Vol
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Andy Jassy - Amazon
14%
Yes
14.2¢
No
85.8¢
Sam Altman - OpenAI
8%
Yes
7.5¢
No
92.5¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$702K
Vol
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Pause–pause–pause
66%
Yes
66.0¢
No
34.0¢
Other
33%
Yes
33.4¢
No
66.6¢
Jul 29, 2026
End
•
$521K
Vol
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
5.0%
13%
Yes
13.3¢
No
86.7¢
6.0%
13%
Yes
13.0¢
No
87.0¢
Dec 31, 2026
End
•
$468K
Vol
US x Cuba economic deal by...?
December 31
42%
Yes
42.0¢
No
58.0¢
July 31
4%
Yes
3.9¢
No
96.1¢
Jun 30, 2026
End
•
$396K
Vol
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